Hard Hitting Conservative Commentary by Gary M. Polland
Volume XXIII Number 13 – October 14, 2024

 
Download TCR Voter's Guide


 

Thoughts This Fortnight

 

ELECTION 2024 IS ALMOST HERE

It is finally almost here and time to vote. Early voting begins October 21 and ends November 1. Election day is November 5.

It is important to note major counties in Texas can have long ballots due to the number of judgeships on the ballot. Given those numbers, it is hard even for well-informed lawyers to determine who is best qualified to be elected as judges. The Texas Conservative Review Voters Guide will be released soon, both in the mail and also online.

In Harris County (Houston) there are several critical races.

First, U.S. Senate where Ted Cruz is seeking a third term. He is strong on lower taxes and spending, ending illegal immigration, peace through strength, and support of our key ally, Israel. His opponent is none of those things.

Second, the three key Harris County races are former Houston City Councilmember Mike Knox for Harris County Sheriff, Dan Simons for Harris County District Attorney and former Harris County Commissioner Steve Radack for Harris County Tax Assessor-Collector. Third, there are hotly contested judicial races where, for the first time in a while, there are Republican incumbents and strong Court of Appeals candidates, all of whom you should support.


THE RACE FOR THE WHITE HOUSE

Kamala Harris’ recent appearance on 60 Minutes (even if the do-over allowed on some of her mindless answers) was a disaster. This was not a tough interview and she wholly failed to handle the questions asked.

Here are a few lowlights of her joke of a performance:

On immigration, the reporter inquired of Harris why the Biden-Harris administration had only recently started tackling the issue, after almost four years and an unprecedented surge in illegal border crossings. Harris blamed Congress and Donald Trump “who wants to run on a problem instead of fixing a problem, so he told his buddies in Congress, ‘kill the bill, don’t let it move forward.’”

The follow-up question was “But there was a historic flood of undocumented immigrants coming across the border the first three years of your administration,” he continued. “As a matter of fact, arrivals quadrupled from the last year of President Trump. Was it a mistake to loosen immigration policies as much as you did?”

Harris’ answer. “It’s a longstanding problem, and solutions are at hand and from day one, literally, we have been offering solutions…”

The reporter interrupted, “was it a mistake to allow that kind of flood to happen in the first place? Was it a mistake too?”

“I think the policies that we have been promoting have been about fixing a problem, not promoting a problem,” she added.

Asked again “But the numbers did quadruple under your watch?” Harris showing irritation said, “And the numbers today … because of what we have done, we have cut the flow of illegal immigration, we have cut the flow of fentanyl, but we need Congress to act.”

On the war in the Middle East, V.P. Harris was asked if the U.S. has “no sway” over Israel’s leader Benjamin Netanyahu, who has accepted billions of dollars of American aid but seems to be ignoring Washington’s calls for a ceasefire.

“The work that we do diplomatically with the leadership of Israel is an ongoing pursuit around making clear our principles,” said Harris.

The reporter followed up: “But it seems that Prime Minister Netanyahu isn’t listening?”

“We’re not going to stop pursuing what is necessary for the United States to be clear about where we stand on the need for this war to end.” How about defeating our enemies in Iran and taking out their nuclear weapons program?

In a question about the economy, Harris offered only generalizations. “My plan is about saying that when you invest in small businesses, you invest in the middle class and you strengthen America’s economy,” she said. “Small businesses are part of the backbone of America’s economy,” she restated.

Quizzed on how America might fund her new trillion-dollar spending plans, she said she would make the rich “pay their fair share.” In fact, the rich pay the vast majority of taxes paid.

When asked “how are you going to get this through Congress?” Harris replied that she “cannot afford to be myopic … I am a public servant, I am also a capitalist” – Yeah, so what!

Finally, she was asked why voters say they don’t know what she stands for. “It’s an election, Bill.” The reporter then mentioned her flip-flops on issues such as fracking, immigration and Medicare.

Her response, “In the last four years I have been vice president of the United States and I have been traveling our country and I have been listening to folks and seeking what is possible in terms of common ground,” she replied. “I believe in building consensus. We are a diverse people. Geographically, regionally, in terms of where we are in our backgrounds and what the American people do want is that we have leaders who can build consensus, where we can compromise and understand it’s not a bad thing as long as you don’t compromise to find common sense solutions. And that has been my approach.”

Do you understand that word salad? Harris’ response on the issues are as clear as mud? So there really is no choice for President, Donald Trump, while not perfect, is the best choice for America.


THE IRAN THREAT TO AMERICA, ISRAEL AND THE WEST

Who is on the frontline defending the West from radical Islam as personified by Iran?

Israel. Iran is the leading state sponsor of terrorism. Iran calls for death to America and death to Israel, over and over again. We should believe them.

The defeat of the radical regime in Iran and its proteges Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis is critical. Israel is doing the heavy lifting, and we need to help them with weapons so the dangerous regimes can be eliminated as a threat to all of us. There is no such thing as a ceasefire when your enemy wants to kill you.

We wonder why the U.S. and its NATO allies continue to urge Israel to show restraint, limiting targets for Israel to respond to the historic, largest in history, missile strike on a sovereign nation.

The fact is, every military/industrial target in Iran are fair game, and that includes the nuclear programs and affiliated industries.

Eylon Levy in a recent column in the Telegraph-UK described what is going on: “A year after Hamas burned Israeli families alive, Israel is not only fighting Hamas; it is fighting for its life against the Iranian regime and its proxy armies on seven fronts. As we fight for our survival, we know that we are fighting on the frontlines of the Free World, against the enemies of the Free World, and making the world safer for you. We don’t need your thanks. We do need you to hold your nerve.

The Oct. 7 war is existential for Israel – and for the Free World. To secure our survival, we need to remove the threat of the terrorist armies on our borders, hellbent on our destruction. Israel cannot accept a ceasefire that leaves these terrorist armies free and emboldened to intensify their religious war to annihilate us. At stake is whether the enemies of the Free World conclude that it won’t stand up for itself and will throw its allies under a bus when the going gets tough.

This is not a war Israel started, wanted or even expected. But it is a war that we must win, because we want to live. Much of the West wants this war to go away, but the war cannot go away until the threats go away. And we cannot wish them away.

Israel is doing the world’s dirty work. It does not want your sympathy; it demands your respect. It is single-handedly taking out the world’s most wanted terrorists with bounties on their heads. It is dismantling the Iranian regime’s proxy armies and disrupting their supply routes. It is showing the world what it means to have a spine and stand up for yourself, your survival, and your country. To withstand unimaginable pressure to do what you’ve got to do to keep your family safe.

In Israel we all dream of peace, but we know peace is impossible while we are surrounded by enemies that openly seek our annihilation. The Iranian regime and its proxy armies are counting on Western states to abandon a major ally and leave themselves exposed. Don’t.”

TCR Comment – Support Israel and take out the modern Hitler state, Iran and its Middle East allies. This will reduce terrorism and be a boon for Iran’s peaceful citizens and their desire for freedom.


EDITORIAL CARTOON OF THE WEEK


The Economy Pauses But Stocks Make
New Highs With Flagging Momentum

By Neland Nobel as it appeared in The Prickly Pear on October 13, 2024

Click Here to See on The Prickly Pear

“October. This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August, and February.” Mark Twain

History indicates that September is the weakest month of the year, and October has more crashes than any other month. Someone forgot to tell the stock market all that.

With continued mixed signals from the economy, stocks moved to a triple top and broke through to new highs. Strangely, though, there has not been much carry-through since the breakout.

As impressive as the upside action had been, the momentum was not as strong as in previous peaks, creating a technical divergence.  In the bottom panel of the chart, you can see the rate of change has tailed off, and volume is contracting.  In short, the market has moved to new highs but is not showing much power just yet.  This has surprised some observers because the Federal Reserve did announce and follow through on the first in a series of interest rate cuts.

On the other hand, the market has been amazingly poised and resistant to decline despite the political unknowns in the US, the slump in China, military reverses in Ukraine, and the spreading of war in the Middle East.  As we have noted before, as long as the market stays well above the linear and moving average trend, it is best to assume the market remains in the bull phase.

Generally, after Thanksgiving, through the end of the year, is a strong period for stocks.

Many global central banks have started to cut rates, and in China, they have fired multiple monetary bazookas to stimulate the economy and rescue the stock market. The result has been a massive upward move in Chinese stocks.  However, critics note that if such stimulus was necessary, there is something wrong with the underlying Chinese economy.  Real estate and banking woes continue to harry investors. China’s sharp move to the Left and demographic issues are also of concern. Nevertheless, the market initially soared on the news but now is giving some of those quick gains back.

Chinese stocks rose quickly, almost 30%, on the news of “stimulus.”  It remains to be seen if such an overbought rally can continue.

Speaking of stimulus, the combination of many nations cutting rates and providing liquidity through their central banks has caused the global money supply to start rising.  Many economists believe that inflation is primarily a monetary phenomenon.  If true, such global money expansion will make battling inflation that much more difficult. If global inflation does not moderate,  it will be hard to keep up with the promise by central banks to lower interest rates.  That is unless said banks abandon any pretensions of fighting inflation.  On that news, world gold prices also continue to rise to new highs, brushing $2,700 an ounce before backing off modestly.

The combined actions of many central banks are boosting world liquidity. Some of that may translate into increased economic activity, but much of it will likely flow into financial markets.

Did the Federal Reserve start to cut rates before inflation was slayed?  It would seem so.  If you believe the numbers, employment remains robust, although an incredible 86% of new jobs were government jobs! Persistent inflation and huge supply (massive deficits, as far as the eye can see) have caused the bond market to short-circuit. Below is a chart of the bellwether 10-year US Treasury Bond yield. Usually, when a central bank starts to cut interest rates, interest rates generally begin to fall.  That is the whole point of the exercise, to make it easier and cheaper to borrow money.

Note that rates for the 10-year bond have been falling since May. The Fed made its announcement on September 19th. Since mid-September, rates have gone up by almost a half percentage point.  Momentum indicators have turned upward, suggesting rates will continue to rise even further for a while.

Moreover, inflation numbers are not going in the right direction.  As the ever-observant Kobeissi Letter notes, Core CPI inflation is now rising for the first time in 18 months.  Headline PPI inflation has been rising for the first time since June. Last month’s PPI inflation number was revised to HIGHER. Core PPI inflation has now been up for two straight months. The previous month’s Core PPI inflation number wasrevised HIGHER aswell.  This has all occurred with oil prices falling.  However, now that war is looming in the Middle East and China is stimulating, there is a good chance oil has found a bottom and will be strengthening in the months ahead.

Skepticism toward government economic numbers continues to grow.  Not only are the revisions frequent and significant, they are almost always in the opposite direction.  Furthermore, some of their calculations make no sense.  For example, in creating inflation numbers, the government contends that healthcare insurance costs have declined 33% over the past two years. Does anyone in the real world believe that?  How many other inputs to their final calculations are as flawed as this number?

Incidentally, skepticism towards modern hedonically adjusted (adjusted for changes in quality) inflation numbers is not a new problem. John Williams at Shadowstats.com has been keeping CPI data using older methods, and since 2000, there seems to have been a huge difference between how numbers were kept before and how they are kept today. This makes historical comparisons very difficult. It would be like comparing the length of trees over time by constantly changing the definition of a foot.

The red line is the CPI in use today, and the blue line is how Williams keeps it, based on the way the government calculated before hedonic adjustments.  What began as a small spread around 2000 has become a canyon of difference.

So, interest rates are rising rather than falling, and inflation remains a problem.  What could cause this misfire? Opinions vary, but we are concerned that the Fed (and other central banks) have given up too early in the inflation fight, and the oversupply of bonds (huge deficits to finance) may well be the cause of such abnormal action.

Central banks may also be basing policy off bogus government numbers or being overtly political.  Whatever the facts, the outcomes seem strangely perverse.

As we have mentioned before, the financial markets and the economy are not the same thing. Over the years, massive liquidity injections have reduced the association between the real economy and securities prices.  For example, earnings are up year over year, less than 5%, but the market is up 22%.  Thus, if there is a connection between earnings and market performance, it seems to be a very loose one indeed. The financial markets march more to the tune of liquidity and sentiment, which remain undeniably positive.

Sentiment is high right now, which is rather odd for a seasonally weak period of the year. The CNN Fear and Greed Gauge is now well into the Greed zone and almost to the Extreme Greed zone.  Markets tend to underperform in conditions of extreme sentiment because such emotion is already in the price structure.

Just one month ago, it was just 38, so it has doubled quickly.  Jubilation over lower rates?  Perhaps, but maybe the market may wish to look at what rates are doing on Treasury Bonds. Finally, how is the economy doing?  David Rosenberg provided this quick summary which tells the tale well.

Other than export volumes and average weekly earnings, it is hard to find any metric that is higher now than it was a year ago. Mind you, this slack performance is despite an incredibly large fiscal stimulus. Given how much adrenaline the patient has been injected with, the patient should be off the gurney and dancing in the operating room. Unfortunately, that is not what is happening.

Security charts courtesy of Stockcharts.com created by the author.


SUPPORT REPUBLICAN JUDICIAL CANDIDATES
AT THEIR UPCOMING FUNDRAISER

Click here to purchase tickets


THANKS TO OUR ADVERTISERS!


About Your Editor

Gary Polland is a long-time conservative and Republican spokesman, fund-raiser, and leader who completed three terms as the Harris County Republican Chairman. During his three terms, Gary was described as “the most successful county Chairman in America” by Human Events – The National Conservative Weekly. He is in his twenty-eighth year of editing a newsletter dealing with key conservative and Republican issues. For the last twenty-three years, he has edited the Texas Conservative Review. As a public service for the previous 20 years, Gary has published election guides for the GOP primary, general elections, and city elections, all to assist conservative candidates. Gary also for 20 years cohosted Red, White and Blue on Houston Public Media TV 8 PBS Houston, longest running political talk show in Texas history and for the last two-plus years Gary has been a regular commentator on Fox 26-Houston’s “What’s Your Point” airing Sunday’s at 7 a.m. Gary serves on the Board of Directors of American Values, a national pro-family, pro-faith, conservative organization supporting the unity of the American people around the vision of our founding fathers and dedicated to reminding the public of the conservative principles fundamental to the survival of our nation. Gary is a practicing attorney and strategic consultant. He can be reached at (713) 621-6335.

 

Subscribe Now

* indicates required

Intuit Mailchimp

 

View Archive

© 2024 Texas Conservative Review

The Texas Conservative Review is published by Conservative Media Properties, LLC
Phone: (713) 621-6335 Fax: (713) 622-6334 E-mail: Gary@TexasConservativeReview.com
Your thoughts and comments are welcome